This analysis uses the day that Governor Pritzker’s Stay-at-Home Order went into effect (March 21st), as a way to delineate between two time frames:
As the data below suggest, the use of a single date to mark the onset of the pandemic is an oversimplification, but this allows for a clean comparison of rideshare trends year-over-year.
Prior to the Stay-at-Home Order going into effect, trips were already down by about 7 percent year-over-year. However, the bulk of the decline in rideshare occurred after the during the following 9 months. From late March 2020 onwards, only 27 million rideshare trips were taken in Chicago, about 60 million fewer trips compared to the same period in 2019.
| Period | 2019 | 2020 | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-COVID (1/1-3/21) | 24,413,752 | 22,610,225 | -1,803,527 | -7% |
| Post-COVID (3/21-12/31) | 87,064,565 | 27,261,160 | -59,803,405 | -69% |
| Total | 111,478,317 | 49,871,385 | -61,606,932 | -55% |
It is clear that behavior changed in March even before the Stay-at-Home Order, as trips per day decreased significantly after Saturday, March 14th, 2020, a full week before the Order went into effect. Note that the earlier fluctuations in January and February correspond to weekday versus weekend trips.
While the number of trips were down significantly in 2020 from April to December compared to the same period in 2019, rideshare trips by day exhibited the same period across years and times periods; relatively low Monday through Wednesday before rising into the weekend and peaking Saturday.
Breaking out trips by hour of the day, it is clear that trips were shifted over time after the Stay-at-Home order went into effect. Weekend trips by hour (dashed line) still exhibited a late night surge, but the twin peaks of the morning and evening rush during weekdays (solid line) are less noticeable. It is clear that a higher proportion of weekday trips took place during the late afternoon hours compared to the same Post-COVID period in 2019.
Prior to the Stay-at-Home Order going into effect, trips were 6.4 miles long on average, a 9 percent increase year-over-year. From late March 2020 onwards, however, the average trip distance increased to only slightly to 6.5 miles, a 1.7% increase compared to the same period in 2019.
| Period | 2019 | 2020 | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-COVID | 5.86 | 6.39 | 0.53 | 9.0% |
| Post-COVID | 6.43 | 6.53 | 0.11 | 1.7% |
While average trip distance increased slightly, the average trip duration fell significantly in 2020. After March 21, 2020, the average trip time was 15.9 minutes, a 15 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2019. This finding aligns with Manzo and Bruno’s analysis based on a sample of trips from September 2019 and September 2020 which found a 16 percent decline in average trip duration due to a decrease in congestion.
| Period | 2019 | 2020 | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-COVID | 17.5 | 16.9 | -0.6 | -3% |
| Post-COVID | 18.6 | 15.9 | -2.7 | -15% |
The average trip fare in 2020 was about $0.80 higher in the first three months of the year compared to the same period in 2019, a 7.4 percent increase. However, in the period after the Stay-at-Home Order went into effect, the average trip fare in 2020 was about the same as in 2019.
| Period | 2019 | 2020 | Change | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-COVID | $10.79 | $11.59 | $0.80 | 7.4% |
| Post-COVID | $12.26 | $12.34 | $0.08 | 0.7% |
The spatial distribution of rideshare trips that started and ended within the City of Chicago during the Pre-COVID period (1/1-3/21) of 2019 and 2020 were very similar. The maps below display how spatial patterns changed after the Stay-at-Home Order went into effect, relative to 2019.
The top 20 percent of census tracts with the most essential workers are outlined in black. At least 532 essential workers reside in each of these tracts. Combined, these tracts are home to 121,060 (41.5%) of the city’s 293,575 essential workers. “Essential workers” are defined as: healthcare practitioners and technical occupations; healthcare support occupations; (protective service occupations; EXCLUDED HERE) food preparation and serving related occupations; building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations; and personal care and service occupations.
The spatial distribution of rideshare origins and destinations are very similar. Trips are highly concentrated around the downtown core - note the logarithmic scale of each map. While the number of trips in 2020 cratered compared to the same period in 2019, most trips started or ended around the central business district. In the Post-COVID periods of both 2019 and 2020, the top three community areas (The Loop, Near North Side, and Near West Side) accounted for over 40 percent of all rideshare trips within the city.
The widespread decline in the volume of trips, however, does mask some relative changes in neighborhood rideshare usage. The second map shows how the percentile rank of each Census Tract changed during the Post-COVID period in 2020 versus 2019. For example, one tract in the West Side neighborhood of Austin was middle of the pack for trip pickups in 2019 (56th percentile). Pickups were almost cut in half in 2020, but the tract qualified as one of the more active pickup spots in the city (75th percentile). Neighborhoods on the South and West Sides saw a relative increase in their percentile rank, indicating an inelastic demand for rideshare. While few rideshare trips were made in these areas compared to other parts of the city, rideshare trip behavior was less affected during the pandemic.
These South and West Side neighborhoods include some of areas with a high concentration of essential workers, but the parts of the Southwest and Northwest Sides that saw the largest relative dropoff in their trip ranking are also home to many essential workers.